James Montier – Thinking About Thinking
by Mike Rawson · Published · Updated
Tags: Psychology
by Mike Rawson · Published July 16, 2018 · Last modified June 20, 2020
by Mike Rawson · Published September 23, 2016 · Last modified June 16, 2020
by Mike Rawson · Published November 6, 2017 · Last modified June 21, 2020
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Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future.
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Very informative read! As you say, knowing what you are thinking and knowing why you might favor a certain decision are key to getting better at many tasks, including investing. Understanding heuristics will definitely help one make more rational decisions. But knowing about heuristics in a cold state is different than applying that knowledge in a hot, emotional state. This is where I think meditation, which leads to mindfulness, can help us recognize when we are acting emotionally and to our own disadvantage. I’ve devoted a whole website to mindful investing for just this reason.