Coronavirus Numbers

Coronavirus numbers

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5 Responses

  1. Avatar Al Cam says:

    Perhaps we should leave these musings to the experts – but I understand and have often succumbed to the temptation. For a variety of reasons, I find the contrast between the numbers for UK & Germany particularly puzzling.
    Also, I too am no expert, so could easily be wrong.
    However, I think you need to tidy up the testing sections – e.g. use of “quick” & “slow” may be wrong way round and description of antigen test should include “Covid”.
    Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT) for R0 of 3.0 is c. 67%.
    I believe that a HIT of 60% in consistent with an R0 of 2.5.

    IIRC your background is physical sciences (PS) – as is mine.
    IMO the level of scientific discipline associated PS is rarely present/possible with medicine.

    • Mike Rawson Mike Rawson says:

      I don’t think there are any experts at the moment. If anyone really does understand, they aren’t going to risk telling us, since the MSM is clearly not onside.

      I’m not too interested in the details – I just wanted to work my way through a lot of conflicting/bogus information to figure out where we stand. R0s and HITs are less important than testing, treatment and a vaccine. I’m after a time scale for any return to normality and some predictions for what a “new normal” might look like – this remains primarily an investing site.

      Telegraph is reporting this morning that under-40s don’t develop antigens/immunity, which is not good.

  2. Avatar Stephen Mulliner says:

    Thanks for setting out your thoughts. IMO, the big unknowns are (a) whether the virus will return in a second or third wave (as did Spanish flu), (b) whether social distancing plus mask wearing in public will be sufficient to keep the infection rate under control if it does re-appear and (c) whether and when a reliable vaccine will appear.

    I, too, would like to understand the reasons why the German death rate per million appears to be or is so much lower than ours and Italy. John Lee (the recently retired pathology professor to whom you referred) suspects that there is a systematic issue at work (such as different death allocation criteria).

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Coronavirus Numbers

by Mike Rawson time to read: 9 min
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Weekly Roundup 200413
Weekly Roundup, 14th April 2020

Today's Weekly Roundup tries hard to largely steer clear of the coronavirus for a change.

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